This changing in weather patterns impacts agriculture, health, air quality and fisheries negatively.
By: Ali Kaouri
Photo source: State of the Planet
A “super” El Nino was observed in 2015-2016, which led to warming of 0.9C above the average in 2015.
El Nino is a naturally occurring weather cycle where weak trade winds are blown eastwards, bringing with them the warm surface-level water to the east side of the Pacific Ocean.
The effects of El Nino on global warming are understood, but it is still unclear whether increasing temperatures have a direct effect on the intensity and frequency of El Nino. Different studies arrive at opposing conclusions.
A study in 2014 suggests that El Nino events could double due to climate change. However, other models suggest that the ENSO cycle will weaken or stay the same. The variability of El Nino events make it hard to predict how global warming will affect them.
The steady increase in ocean heat content could also affect El Nino, but its exacts effects are not yet known.
It is crucial to understand and study how climate change will affect El Nino, as their interaction could modify both phenomena. CLIVAR (Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change) is a research program aimed at understanding “ENSO in a Changing Climate,” and as of yet has been unsuccessful in determining the exact effects. Their mission to understand the effects is ongoing.
On the other hand, La Nina – where normal conditions are intensified, i.e, trade winds blow harder from east to west, and more cold water accumulates in the in the east and moves west – causes cooler temperature and less rainfall along the coast of South America, and more frequent cyclones in Australia.
La Nina usually occurs a year after an El Nino, and causes the ocean to absorb more heat. Both of these opposite phenomena are grouped together as one: El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This changing in weather patterns impacts agriculture, health, air quality and fisheries negatively.
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